Comments on: Drop Chance Probability

By: Tlord

Tlord — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 19:32:52 +0000

How Good Are You At Math Equations Frost?:

Over and over i hear of guilds being unlucky with certain things dropping wether nowa days its in ICC or still in ToC. Question: With the drop rate of DV..and the number of runs..Is it possible to form a probable amount of times an item will drop.. now..i know there may be a fallacy in what i have laid out here.. having it pointed out or answered is my only desire here
P.S. Would it be smarter to just reset your “Runs” part of the calculator and just go from that?

By: Tlord

Tlord — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 20:41:46 +0000

Success:

36 And It’s All Mine , I was getting Discouraged after all those runs and no results… transfer the number of runs over to the amount i was able to do per week on Kara (1) and Zg (Every 3 Days). With the numbers given in the calculator I am now far from giving up in Kara…( will never stop in ZG til that damn raptor is mine )

By: Tlord

Tlord — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 21:35:43 +0000

29 Stratholme runs and counting :*(

By: Darjk

Darjk — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 16:02:42 +0000

“Curious if they would ever do something like that anywhere in WoW. Like you have to sacrifice a party or raid member” …

Its called: Summoning a Doomguard in Vanilla WoW.

By: Frostheim

Frostheim — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 19:22:16 +0000

Well, I’m still *mostly* just the resident hunter.

By: Armin

Armin — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 17:59:19 +0000

In addition to ‘chance’ one should also realise that Blizzard has, and continues to mess with drop-rates.

Two examples:

1) Batered Hilt, although – as I know at least – Blizzard doesn’t officially admit it, it is a well know secret the drop-chance was a lot higher at patch-day. Intended or a ‘bug’, who knows …

2) In the previous example the droprate was know. In many cases it is not known and only reversed engineerd by taking many samples. E.g. wowhead. However if Blizzard changes the chance in between, you get improper data. But since Blizzard doesn’t (always) say if/when they changed it, many of the statistics are incorect.

Same applies for proc-chances. If it is today x%, it can be y% tomorrow if one of the developpers of Blizzard had too much coffee …

By: Splatus

Splatus — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 17:21:07 +0000

Kudos to Frost to use his new platform at wow.com to educate on general game issues and not “just” be the resident hunter blogger. Hat is off.

By: Omogon

Omogon — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 13:58:16 +0000

OMG I’M NEVER GONNA GET A NEW GUN !!!!!!!

By: Deepfriedegg

Deepfriedegg — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 13:47:55 +0000

ok, now tell me what is the probability , that you are not gonna see Needle-encrusted Scorpion drop in 19 consecutive runs, then it drops, 4 people roll, tank wins it and the other day it drops again, 3 people roll and tank wins again

By: Odi

Odi — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 12:57:02 +0000

doh . . . *too hard to find* . . . am in class and have students asking me random questions . . can’t they see I’m busy?