It’s not really hunter-related, but I just posted an article on WoW.com explaining how drop chance probability works, and included a little calculator tool. The misunderstanding of probability regarding drop chances (well, and theorycraft in general) has always been a pet peeve of mine, so it felt good to get it all out.
You can see the article here: Drop Chance Probability
Probability is a greatly misunderstood area of math that impacts most areas of WoW gameplay, but none so intensely debated as drop chances. You don’t have to be a math expert to want to know how many times you need to kill a boss to have even odds of seeing that drop you’re seeking. Unfortunately everyone seems to be saying something different about how probability works… Read More.
And my favorite comment so far:
Instead of wasting your time with “math”, “probability”, and “fact”, it is far more constructive to sacrifice virgins to the great god RNG.
(11 votes, average: 4.36 out of 5)
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Member
Love that comment. Curious if they would ever do something like that anywhere in WoW. Like you have to sacrifice a party or raid member in order to kill the boss. Basicly, say the boss gets to 1% health, just a sneeze would kill him/her, boss becomes completely immune, taking someone hostige but you would have to attack your own party/raid member that the boss has in order to defeat the boss. That would be the only way to take off that last 1% health. Just an off hand thought.
I would shoot the rogue
i would so go for that….provided the warlock or rogue get chosen
Wow, look at that. Someone actually made an rng worship website. If you didnt read the comments on that article, then here you go:
http://www.righteousorbs.com/?page_id=1029
Contributor
Comment lists are enormous on that site. I think I’m sticking to the WHU for the most part for my posts. Anyway, I love the mystified tone of some of the comments. You bring math and calculations to their world, and their minds are blown.
Member
Our dps behaves the same way, then, right? Except that, unlike Rivendare’s Mount, we have some ability to increase and weight the possible outcomes of the dice roll. Min-maxing is like stacking the deck in one’s favor.
I like the virgin idea. Time to hunt some down vrigins after 22days of heroic FoS without a single trinketdrop!
Wouldn’t be too hard too mind too many virgins on WoW Scene . . oh dang! BURN!!!!!
doh . . . *too hard to find* . . . am in class and have students asking me random questions . . can’t they see I’m busy?
ok, now tell me what is the probability , that you are not gonna see Needle-encrusted Scorpion drop in 19 consecutive runs, then it drops, 4 people roll, tank wins it and the other day it drops again, 3 people roll and tank wins again
OMG I’M NEVER GONNA GET A NEW GUN !!!!!!!
Member
Kudos to Frost to use his new platform at wow.com to educate on general game issues and not “just” be the resident hunter blogger. Hat is off.
In addition to ‘chance’ one should also realise that Blizzard has, and continues to mess with drop-rates.
Two examples:
1) Batered Hilt, although – as I know at least – Blizzard doesn’t officially admit it, it is a well know secret the drop-chance was a lot higher at patch-day. Intended or a ‘bug’, who knows …
2) In the previous example the droprate was know. In many cases it is not known and only reversed engineerd by taking many samples. E.g. wowhead. However if Blizzard changes the chance in between, you get improper data. But since Blizzard doesn’t (always) say if/when they changed it, many of the statistics are incorect.
Same applies for proc-chances. If it is today x%, it can be y% tomorrow if one of the developpers of Blizzard had too much coffee …
Admin
Well, I’m still *mostly* just the resident hunter.
“Curious if they would ever do something like that anywhere in WoW. Like you have to sacrifice a party or raid member” …
Its called: Summoning a Doomguard in Vanilla WoW.
Member
29 Stratholme runs and counting :*(
Member
Success:
36 And It’s All Mine
, I was getting Discouraged after all those runs and no results… transfer the number of runs over to the amount i was able to do per week on Kara (1) and Zg (Every 3 Days). With the numbers given in the calculator I am now far from giving up in Kara…( will never stop in ZG til that damn raptor is mine 
)
Member
How Good Are You At Math Equations Frost?:
Over and over i hear of guilds being unlucky with certain things dropping wether nowa days its in ICC or still in ToC. Question: With the drop rate of DV..and the number of runs..Is it possible to form a probable amount of times an item will drop.. now..i know there may be a fallacy in what i have laid out here.. having it pointed out or answered is my only desire here
P.S. Would it be smarter to just reset your “Runs” part of the calculator and just go from that?