One of the emails I received last night had this delightful line in it:
Can’t help but get the feeling that you spend your days crunching numbers for some large data firm. Then come home and apply this same knowledge to WoW.
This is terribly ironic because I applied my WoW-style theorycrafting to a work situation yesterday. There was an area where decisions were routinely made based on “gut feelings” and instinct. As we know, evolution just doesn’t work that way. Instinct will help you run away from a bear, but not make financial business decisions. And data tells us that gut feeling is literally about as accurate as pure chance.
I had been thinking about this work situation over the weekend, and developed a mathematical equation (actually two, for two different related points) that took into account all of the factors involved. This was primarily a financial/bookeeping situation, so it was possible to model it with great accuracy. I solved the equations for the variable that mattered, got the values of the other constants from the CFO, and brought it to the bosses: president and vice president.
The conversation went like this:
Frostheim: Here is the equation that models our situation. With it we can make a logical, factual decision about how to improve things: A + B = C
Bosses: Very clever! That looks right.
Frostheim: I figure that A = 1
Bosses: Yes, that is correct.
Frostheim: And we know that B = 2
Bosses: Indeed it is.
Frostheim: So we know that C = 3
Bosses: No it doesn’t.
Frostheim: ….
Frostheim: But… wait… A + B = C… that looks right, doesn’t it?
Bosses: Yes, that is right.
Frostheim: And A is 1 and B is 2, right?
Bosses: Those numbers look right to us.
Frostheim: Then C is equal to 3.
Bosses. No.
Frostheim: How do you figure?
Bosses: We’ve been doing this longer than you, we know how this works. Our instinct tells us that C is not equal to 3.
Frostheim: You can’t argue with the result. You can disagree with the equation, and we can discuss that. You can disagree with the values of A or B and we can discuss that. But if the equation is right, and the values are right, then C is 3. That’s just a fact.
Bosses: C is not 3.
Frostheim: But you are factually incorrect. You do know this, right? This isn’t an opinion, this is a fact, this is science.
Bosses: No, let’s keep doing things the way we’ve always done them and hope something changes.
So, to answer the comment – I do not work for a data firm. Very, very far from it, in the sense that in my mind people working someplace like that make all sorts of rational, fact-based decisions. I work someplace where people think, well, without the aid of science.
They make decisions based on emotions and gut feeling – which is to say with a combination of crazy and random.
While i was doing my postgrad i was working days at book distributing stockhouse. Typical warehouse order packing. The warehouse was getting more and more CD/DVD style products in, and the standard approach to picking the orders before packing didn’t account for there fragility (the old brittle clear plastic (“crystal” or “jewel”) cases. I designed an easier dispensing holder for them that would stop the cracked cases problems we were having, and took it to the floor manager. “But that’s not how we do it” “I know it isn’t at the moment, but it’s just as fast and will stop the damage” “there was a meeting last week and there isn’t a cost effective solution, we’re just writing off the damage” “But my solution doesn’t cost anything…” “We’re going to stick with the way we’ve always done it. The management meeting, [italics]which I was a part of[/italics] decided it already” “…ok then”. *It’s right because it is* and *it’s right because we’ve always done it this way* are just so unscientific
I see this all the time when it comes to hit rating. People assume that not being hit capped implies some sort of horrible consequences beyond a couple of misses and will do ridiculous things like put a spell power trinket on instead of the darkmoon card: greatness just to get over hit cap.
There’s nothing magic about misses- when they happen, your DPS goes down, and avoiding them is the cheapest way to increase your DPS, but missing (even on a misdirect) will not wipe a raid.
WHO MOVED MY CHEESE AMIRITE?
I absolutely love what I have coined the “SALT” mentality. Same As Last Time. That’s how we do it, that’s how we’ve done it, forevermore.
Isn’t it amazing that some people rise to the level of their own incompetence? Guess that’s why I’m a lowly Project Manager and not a C-level executive…
I’ve found a couple ways to be a “Change Agent” at work — (Arust that’s for you)
1. Be subversive — break the change into little pieces if possible and sneak them in without the Boss’s knowledge. This way sucks unless someone eventually discovers it because you’ll never get recognition.
2. Be annoying — bring up your idea repeatedly. I think this works because when the boss hears your idea the first time it is new and everyone hates new. After (s)he hears it the 10th time it’s not so new and scary anymore.
Can I have permission to use this anecdote in the Mathematics classes I teach please!
By all means, please do!
Dr. J, you sound as if you would rather beg forgiveness than ask permission
My career success thus far is built on not asking for permission. Although I find I do a lot less seeking of forgiveness than I used to.
You forgot to add “/rant”
Thank you!
Good thing is in the military as of few years back * mostly since Somalia* the army has changed that mentality. Its no longer how we used to do it , its now , what works best. For years we where plagued with out-dated SOP’s and techniques, all that has changed for the better. Now , as long as its approved, every one must change with the system that changes almost bi-monthly. From how we treat our patients to how we treat civilians in Iraq. For the better, by far. I wish in the corporate sector this would be applied but honestly people are either to comfortable with how things are done or scared of change and will it be their fault if it goes wrong?
A) Change, whether for good or ill, is always a cause of stress.
B) Some people just don’t care to add any changes to their day because they actually don’t care.
Its not complicated, people are the suck when they get comfy. Sorry for the poor luck Frost.
Well at our company they are actually teaching us to change things.
Their motto is Change is here to stay.
Haha Yori — sounds like you’ve attended a seminar or two.